EconomPic Data
Economics Made Easy
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State by State Unemployment: Nowhere to Hide
The BLS details:Between August and September 2009, 15 states and the District of Columbia experienced statistically significant changes in employment, all of which were decreases. The largest statistically significant job losses occurred in New York (-81,700), Texas (-44,700), California (-39,300), …
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Producer Prices Surprise to the Downside
NY Times details:Even as investors were bidding up the prices of commodities like oil and gold last month, wholesale prices in the United States were falling, reflecting weak demand at home.The government’s Producer Price Index fell 0.6 percent in September after rising by 1.7 percent a month earlie …
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Commercial Real Estate Fiasco
Bloomberg details the fiasco that is the commercial real estate market:Commercial property values in the U.S. declined in August as job losses and the recession cut demand for offices, retail space and rental apartments.The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices fell 3 percent in August fr …
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The Rich Get Richer: Weekly Wage Edition
Wages rose across the board! Good news right? Not necessarily. Per the WSJ:There were about 8.2 million fewer full-time wage and salary workers in the third quarter than two years ago; the data doesn't include part-time or self-employed workers. Low-wage workers are hit disproportionally during rece …
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On the Attractiveness of Treasuries
The BadThe ten year treasury bond is yielding 3.4%.The GoodThat yield is 4.7% above the latest year over year CPI print, the highest level in 25 years.So, are longer dated Treasuries a good investment? Depends on your outlook for interest rates and inflation. That measly 3.4% is still 140 bps higher …
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Consumer Sentiment Sluggish
Reuters details Friday's Michigan Consumer Sentiment release:U.S. consumer sentiment fell unexpectedly this month on persistent worries that the "dismal" state of personal finances would not recover quickly from the worst recession in decades, a report showed on Friday.The Reuters/University of Mich …
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Japanese Tertiary Index Shows Strength
RTT News details:An index measuring tertiary industrial activity in Japan was up 0.3 percent in August compared to the previous month, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Monday, posting an index score of 97.1.That beat analyst expectations for a 0.1 percent monthly increase followin …
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EconomPics of the Week (10/16/09)
Week three of six (yikes... only halfway there) of crazy "real job" related travel if you've noticed the limited posts / lack of new analysis. Completely drained so don't be surprised if I decide to take a few days off next week, but a weekend has proven to regenerate me before.Economic DataInflatio …
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Output Gap and Inflation
Marketwatch details:Output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities rose 0.7% in September after an upwardly revised 1.2% gain in August and a 0.9% increase in July, the Fed said. The 0.7% increase in output in September was stronger than the 0.4% gain expected by economists surveyed by Market …
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Philly Fed Shows Strength, But Less
Unlike the strength shown in the Empire Manufacturing Survey, the Philadelphia Fed Survey showed the recovery may not be one direction in nature. Bloomberg details: Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded at a slower pace this month, a reminder that the recovery from the deepest recession …
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Inflation Cools Off? No Inflation to Begin With
CNN's headline of this morning's CPI release was "Inflation Cools Off". My question... what inflation? Take this anecdote of the "inflation" in the system. USA Today details:Colorado will become the first state to reduce its minimum wage because of a falling cost of living.The state Department of La …
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Empire Manufacturing Index Roars
Bloomberg details:Manufacturing in the New York region expanded in October for a third straight month, reinforcing signs that factories are helping pull the economy out of the worst recession in seven decades.The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index soared to 34.6, the highest s …
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Good News Alert: Inventories Cliff Dive
Marketwatch details:Paced by a large draw-down in autos, business inventories fell 1.5%, matching the largest percentage decline ever recorded in the 17-year history of the data. Inventories also fell 1.5% in December 2008 and in October 2001.It was the 12th consecutive month of falling inventories. …
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Retail Sales Show Relative Strength
CNN Money reports:Retail sales fell in September after a popular program aimed at boosting auto sales ended, but the drop was smaller than economists had expected, government data showed Wednesday.The Commerce Department said total retail sales fell 1.5% last month, down sharply from an increase of …
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UK Weakness and Disinflation
In the face of strong numbers coming out of China indicating much of the world may be coming out of the global recession faster than anticipated, the dollar isn't the only currency selling off. In fact, the Pound has been selling off at a faster clip due to some serious relative weakness brewing out …
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Renting vs. Owning
The NY Times had a recent article 'The Hunt - The Apartment Hunters are Happy Renters' which follows a couple that were previous owners, but felt they were sucked into owning by the boom.Nearly four years ago, “it was the height of a crazy bubble,” Ms. LeCount said. “We just wanted to buy something. …
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Consumer Credit: Supply vs. Demand
In response to my post on Consumer Credit, an anonymous reader asks:Is it possible to determine whether the decline in consumer credit is due to consumers voluntarily paying down their credit, or to banks providing less of it? Consumers paying down their credit cards seems infinitely less scary than …
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German Investor Confidence Slightly Lower
Bloomberg reports:German investor confidence unexpectedly declined for the first time in three months in October amid concerns that the pace of the nascent recovery in Europe’s largest economy may ease.The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst e …
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Costs of Employment Up... Just Not in Wage Form
This American Life's most recent podcast, More is Less, discusses one of the many implications of higher healthcare costs; the fact that less of the increase in costs associated with staffing is actually passed through to the worker in the form of wages (think broken system, greed, and the demand fo …
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The Legacy of Bill Miller
Quick... predict the Barron's title for a fund manager that has underperformed their benchmark (in this case the S&P 500) by 15% over the last 12 months."Tough Times for Bill Miller""The Rise and Fall of Biller Miller""Bill Miller Loses His Edge"Nope.... the actual headline? "He's Back".Lets go …
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