EconomPic Data
Economics Made Easy
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Will Their be Appetite for Another Stimulus Plan?
Calculated Risk has a nice post detailing the Possible Upside Surprises, Downside Risks going forward. One area [frequently] mentioned is that only 1/3 of the fiscal stimulus has been spent to date. Below are the details how the ~$180 billion fiscal stimulus has been spent.But while the impact of th …
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Aussie Miracle Continues
Bloomberg details what happens when a workforce of around 11 million (~1/13th that of the United States) that focuses on commodities is located near a BOOMING China that happens to be in need of those commodities:Australian employers unexpectedly added workers in October, pushing the nation’s curren …
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China is Ripping... Bears are Smoking Dope
The equity markets opened up huge this morning with strong news coming out of China. Bloomberg details: Production in China rose 16.1 percent from a year before, the most since March 2008, the statistics bureau said today. The trade surplus almost doubled from September, to $24 billion, as a drop in …
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China is Ripping... Bears are Smoking... Dope
The equity markets opened up huge this morning with strong news coming out of China. Bloomberg details: Production in China rose 16.1 percent from a year before, the most since March 2008, the statistics bureau said today. The trade surplus almost doubled from September, to $24 billion, as a drop in …
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The Job Market and Equities
WSJ details the "hopeful" job opening data:The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey found that the number of job openings in the U.S. increased slightly in both August and September, the first two-month rise since early 2007. Hotels, restaurants, education and health care made t …
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Where are Long Bond Yields Going?
The Case for Higher RatesMassive debt issuance (over supply)Central bank diversification (less demand)Rebounding economy will bring inflation (decrease value of nominal debt)Near historical (recent history at least) low yieldsThe Case for Lower RatesPension (liability driven investing) demandFlight …
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Germany: Improving Economy, Idea of Fast Turnaround Fading
Some insight into Germany, European's largest economy. Similar to the U.S. the current situation is rather ugly, but improving, while optimism for the future is stronger, but expectations for a fast rebound are fading.Bloomberg details:German investor confidence declined more than economists forecas …
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The State of States: They're Broke
Loads of good data and charts in the Rockefeller Institute's latest State Revenue report (hat tip Calculated Risk), but unfortunately it is all depressing.Here's one such depressing nugget.Source: Rockefeller Institute
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The "Paradox of Deleveraging"
CNN Money with the details of Friday's continued decline in consumer credit outstanding: Consumer credit fell in September for the eighth straight month, the longest streak of declines since the Federal Reserve started keeping records in 1943.Total consumer borrowing fell a seasonally adjusted $14.8 …
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Civilian Hours vs. Real GDP
In response to my post detailing the decline in the per capita civilian hours worked per week by a member of the population (we need a better name for this), an anonymous reader points out that:the graphs have basically been declining since 1999He/she is right. Comparing that ten year period over th …
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Health Care Bill Passes Through House. Politics Still SUCK
As I've previously stated, I am all for revamping a broken (make that disaster) of a health care system. So, while I am pleased by the results, the results show how broken the political system is AND how much it SUCKS.First, take a look at the votes. 218 votes were needed and a "whopping" 220 were r …
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Health Care Bill Passes Through House
As I've previously stated, I am all for revamping a broken (make that disaster) of a health care system. So, while I am pleased by the results, the results show how broken the political system is.First, take a look at the votes. 218 votes were needed and a "whopping" 220 were received.But that is no …
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Health Care Bill Passes Through House... Politics Still SUCK
As I've stated previously, I am all for revamping a broken (make that disaster) of a health care system. But the results show broken the political system is as well.First, take a look at the votes. 218 votes were needed and a "whopping" 220 were received.But that is not why the system SUCKS. It does …
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EconomPics of the Week (11/6/09)
Long Term ViewImporting Goods for IOU'sDid We Learn Anything? Carry Trade EditionEmploymentBroader Unemployment to 17.5%Civilian Hours per Week Cliff Dive ContinuesADP Job Loss at 203,000Stay in School...Job Losses... Again, Worse than ReportedRetail Sales... "Low-End" Bias DissipatingWho Needs Work …
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Importing Goods for IOU's
Before we dive into the chart, let me explain what it shows....I took the average 'real quantity index' of GDP and its components* (Table 1.1.3) throughout each of the past six decades to determine the "average" annual 10 year growth rate (i.e. not just Q3 2009 vs. Q3 1999, but Q3 1999 through Q3 20 …
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Stay in School...
Source: BLS
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Civilian Hours per Week Cliff Dive Continues
Employment to population ratio (i.e. percent of the population working) cliff dive....Multiplied by the number of hours worked per week cliff dive...Equals the least amount of hours worked (19.3 hours from 19.4 hours in September) per population member since... well ever recorded (since 1964)...Sour …
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Job Losses... Again, Worse than Reported
Forget about the 190,000 job loss seen in the establishment survey, the household survey lost a whopping 558,000 jobs in October. The difference per The Big Picture:As we have discussed all too many times, the Household survey measures:Agriculture and related employmentUncompensated WorkersUnpaid Fa …
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Broader Unemployment to 17.5%
Source: BLS
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Retail Sales... "Low-End" Bias Dissipating
Same store retail sales were up 1.9% from the same period of 2008. Interestingly enough, the bifurcation between low-end (outperforming) and high-end (underperforming) is dissipating. Below we can see strength not only in "low-end" retailers like TJX (parent company of TJ Maxx and Marshalls), but in …
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