EconomPic Data
Economics Made Easy
-
Selecting a Domestic Fixed Income Benchmark
Barclays Aggregate is Yielding Just 3.35%Last month I detailed that the yield to worst of the Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index (i.e. the most popular US dollar fixed income benchmark) was minuscule at just around 3.5%. Well it is now yielding just 3.35% and as a reminder, that is really all the …
-
Leading Economic Indicators Losing Strength
The AP details the "best in 25+ year" run of the leading economic indicators that still somehow managed to disappoint:A private forecast of economic activity over the next six months edged up less than expected in October, signaling slow, bumpy growth next year.The Conference Board said Thursday tha …
-
Gone Fishing
Posting to resume tomorrow...
-
Auto Prices and CFC; CPI and Capacity
Marketwatch details the latest CPI release:The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in October as energy prices increased for the fifth time in six months to offset another rare decline in rents, the Labor Department said.The core CPI rate, which excludes food and energy prices …
-
Housing Starts and Permits Down.... GOOD
Marketwatch reports:New construction of U.S. houses fell sharply in October to the lowest level in six months, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. Starts fell 10.6% in October to a seasonally adjusted 529,000 annualized units weaker than the 590,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by M …
-
What Stinkin' Inflation? PPI Edition
Briefing detailed the latest PPI release:The producer price index rose 0.3% in October, well below the consensus expectation of an increase of 0.5%.Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI fell an astounding 0.6% over the month. For the year, core PPI has only increased 0.7% after posting a 1.4% y …
-
1 in 7 Americans Affected by Food Insecurity
Ed Harrison of Credit Writedowns (via The Guardian) details a disturbing trend:The US Department of Agriculture highlights how the United States in the last decade, despite increased aggregate wealth, slid back significantly in terms of food insecurity as measure of poverty. With everyone now focuse …
-
No Inventory Correction in September
Forbes reported yesterday (traveling again all week so expects delays):Total business inventories continued to fall in September by 0.4%, less than the 0.7% decline economists were expecting, the Commerce Department reported today. September now marks the thirteenth consecutive month of inventory de …
-
Retail Sales Upside Suprise... Still Weak Longer Term
Marketwatch reports: U.S. retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 1.4% in October, led by a rebound in auto sales, the Commerce Department estimated Monday. Excluding the 7.4% increase in auto sales, retail sales rose 0.2% in October. Auto sales had plunged 14.3% in September after the expirati …
-
Has Euro CPI Seen Its Lows?
The AP details:Consumer prices in the 16 countries that use the euro fell by 0.1 percent in the year to October, official figures confirmed Monday. Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, kept the rate unchanged from its preliminary estimate, in line with market expectations.October's decline was the …
-
Japanese GDP... 4.8% Growth, but Ugly?
EconomPic detailed Japan's odd Q2 GDP print in which real GDP rebounded to positive territory for the first time since Q4 2007, even as nominal GDP continued to contract:This has happened before (but real GDP has never been higher, while nominal GDP was negative).That is... until this release.The is …
-
Will There be Appetite for Another Stimulus Plan?
Calculated Risk has a nice post detailing the Possible Upside Surprises, Downside Risks going forward. One area [frequently] mentioned is that only 1/3 of the fiscal stimulus has been spent to date. Below are the details how the ~$180 billion fiscal stimulus has been spent.But while the impact of th …
-
EconomPics of the Weeks (11/13/09)
Economic DataUnited StatesThe "Paradox of Deleveraging"Civilian Hours vs. Real GDPConsumers Don't Enjoy UnemploymentTrade Deficit Jumps in SeptemberThe State of States: They're BrokeSpending Down + Deficit Up = Not Good ForeignEurozone GDP Breaks Through Zero... Concerns Still ThereAussie Miracle Co …
-
Consumers Don't Enjoy Unemployment
Bloomberg details: Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in November for the second consecutive month as surging unemployment shook households. The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 66 from 70.6 in October. The gauge was projected to rise …
-
Trade Deficit Jumps in September
Bloomberg details:The trade deficit in the U.S. widened in September by the most in a decade, reflecting rising demand for imported oil and automobiles as the economy rebounded from the worst recession since the 1930s. The gap grew a larger-than-anticipated 18 percent to $36.5 billion, the highest l …
-
Eurozone GDP Breaks Through Zero... Concerns Still There
Bloomberg reports:Gross domestic product in the economy of the 16 nations using the euro rose 0.4 percent from the second quarter, when it fell 0.2 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists had forecast the economy to grow 0.5 percent, according to the medi …
-
Just One Super-Secular Mean Reversion?
In response to my post Where are Long Bonds Going? Late 1970's / Early 80's Edition, reader Henry Bee responds:I'm going to replicate the study using 20-year bond in place of 30-year to see if that makes a difference because 20-year bond data goes all the way back to the 30's.While I am definitely i …
-
Spending Down + Deficit Up = Not Good
Bloomberg reports:The U.S. budget deficit widened in October from a year earlier, reaching a record for that month, as rising unemployment cut revenue at the start of the first full fiscal year under President Barack Obama. The excess of spending over revenue widened to $176.4 billion last month, co …
-
Where are Long Bond Yields Going: Late 70's / Early 80's Edition
My comment in my post Where are Long Bond Yields Going?:But the money shot is that when the yield curve has been VERY steep (i.e. more than 4%) the Long Bond has rallied in all cases (19 out of 19 times) over the next year.Received the following response by reader Henry Bee (bold mine):This is a gre …
-
Will Their be Appetite for Another Stimulus Plan?
Calculated Risk has a nice post detailing the Possible Upside Surprises, Downside Risks going forward. One area [frequently] mentioned is that only 1/3 of the fiscal stimulus has been spent to date. Below are the details how the ~$180 billion fiscal stimulus has been spent.But while the impact of th …
EconomPic Data
