EconomPic Data
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EconomPics of the Week (11/6/09)
Long Term ViewImporting Goods for IOU'sDid We Learn Anything? Carry Trade EditionEmploymentBroader Unemployment to 17.5%Civilian Hours per Week Cliff Dive ContinuesADP Job Loss at 203,000Stay in School...Job Losses... Again, Worse than ReportedRetail Sales... "Low-End" Bias DissipatingWho Needs Work …
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Importing Goods for IOU's
Before we dive into the chart, let me explain what it shows....I took the average 'real quantity index' of GDP and its components* (Table 1.1.3) throughout each of the past six decades to determine the "average" annual 10 year growth rate (i.e. not just Q3 2009 vs. Q3 1999, but Q3 1999 through Q3 20 …
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Stay in School...
Source: BLS
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Civilian Hours per Week Cliff Dive Continues
Employment to population ratio (i.e. percent of the population working) cliff dive....Multiplied by the number of hours worked per week cliff dive...Equals the least amount of hours worked (19.3 hours from 19.4 hours in September) per population member since... well ever recorded (since 1964)...Sour …
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Job Losses... Again, Worse than Reported
Forget about the 190,000 job loss seen in the establishment survey, the household survey lost a whopping 558,000 jobs in October. The difference per The Big Picture:As we have discussed all too many times, the Household survey measures:Agriculture and related employmentUncompensated WorkersUnpaid Fa …
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Broader Unemployment to 17.5%
Source: BLS
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Retail Sales... "Low-End" Bias Dissipating
Same store retail sales were up 1.9% from the same period of 2008. Interestingly enough, the bifurcation between low-end (outperforming) and high-end (underperforming) is dissipating. Below we can see strength not only in "low-end" retailers like TJX (parent company of TJ Maxx and Marshalls), but in …
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Retail Sales... "Low-End" Bias Dissapating
Same store retail sales were up 1.9% from the same period of 2008. Interestingly enough, the bifurcation between low-end (outperforming) and high-end (underperforming) is dissapating. Below we can see strength not only in "low-end" retailers like TJX (parent company of TJ Maxx and Marshalls), but in …
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Who Needs Workers Anyhow?
Marketwatch reports: U.S. companies increased their output in the third quarter even as they slashed working hours, driving productivity up at a 9.5% annual rate in the quarter, the Labor Department estimated Thursday. Unit labor costs - a key measure of inflation - dropped at a 5.2% annual rate in …
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Did We Learn Anything? Carry Trade Edition
In theory, it does look like hedge funds are BACK, though it is a bit concerning that EVERY strategy (except those neutral or short equity beta) has been a winner. Back to this in a moment...While many hedge funds make claims that they don't have any equity beta and the returns are alpha driven, as …
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ISM Services Slowly Expanding
No upside in employment in the ISM Services data that we saw in ISM Manufacturing on Monday. Per the ISM: WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ..."General economic tone is still 'wait and see.' Capital outlays are postponed for durable goods." (Health Care & Social Assistance)"Cost-cutting efforts contin …
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ADP Job Loss at 203,000
The Good NewsJob loss is slowly decreasing.The Bad NewsWe are still losing jobs at a historically alarming rate even with unemployment approaching 10% (i.e. "low hanging fruit" were already laid off) and the figure for manufacturing seems to indicate that the ISM manufacturing job gain may have been …
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Euro Zone Producer Prices Continue to Decline
Substitute 'United States' for 'European Union' and you'll get an idea of why the Fed will not be raising rates this afternoon.Forbes details:Producer prices in the 16 countries using the euro fell 0.4 percent against August, leaving them 7.7 percent lower than a year earlier, European Union statist …
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Auto Sales Stabilize
iStock Analyst with the details:With the exception of Chrysler, most major automakers saw improved U.S. sales performance in the month of October. Despite analysts expectations of declining sales, Ford (F) and General Motors both surprised to the upside with gains of 3.1% and 4.1% respectively. This …
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Anyone Ready to Ride the Golden Bubble?
Gold is now up more than 4% over the last two trading days and showed strength during last week's equity and commodities sell-off. BUT, looking at the below chart, it is possible that "we ain't seen nothing yet".As I detailed back in March, I have been "Ready to Ride the Golden Bubble", not on logic …
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What Goes Down... Must Come Up... Factory Orders Edition
Marketwatch details:Orders for U.S. manufactured goods increased a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in September on gains in machinery, autos, defense goods and chemicals, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. Factory orders have risen in five of the past six months, but are down 13.9% in the first nin …
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ISM Manufacturing Points to Upside Surprise
Or at least a bottoming in the manufacturing downturn. Credit Writedowns with the bullish details:If you have been wondering whether a statistical recovery is at hand, today’s ISM manufacturing report should be the clincher. The report was definitely bullish with the ISM index rising to 55.7 and su …
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Correlation Across Stocks Spikes w/ Sell-Off
Zerohedge shows an interesting chart, though the explanation of what it is... is well, wrong. Zerohedge states: The implied correlation reading between all asset classes has hit a 6 month high at 65.50, a jump which mimics the surge in the VIX. High implied correlation readings are indicative of cra …
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Problem Banks on a Parabolic Rise
According to ProblemBankList.com (there really is a website for everything) details what a problem bank is:The Problem Bank List is the FDIC’s internal list of financial institutions that the FDIC believes are in danger of failure. Calculated Risk reader surferdude808 with the details:The Unofficial …
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EconomPics of the Week (Halloween Edition)
Economic DataQ3 GDP: Subsidized Consumption EditionThank You Cash for ClunkersPersonal Income and Outlays Under PressureConsumer (Lack of) ConfidenceCase Shiller (Housing) Surge in PerspectiveMore on Existing Home SalesDallas Manufacturing Turns DownNon-Manufacturing Layoffs Continue to RiseOutlook …
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